Polygraph Screening False Positives: The Base-Rate Trap

Forensic Analysis at the_Desk

A polygraph screening system that correctly identifies 90% of people concealing a particular violation might sound reassuring. But when the violation is rare, the same system could flag far more innocent people than actual wrongdoers. This is known as the base-rate problem, and it is one of the most consequential limitations of large-scale credibility screening. … Read morePolygraph Screening False Positives: The Base-Rate Trap